Three-month bitcoin options skew has turned in favour of puts for the first time since April, according to exchange-published implied volatility surfaces, indicating traders are paying a premium for downside protection.
Skew is a positioning signal, not a forecast. It tells you what hedges cost, and by extension what participants fear enough to insure against.
The shift coincides with an unusually large quarterly expiry. Desks contacted for this story expect much of the open interest to be rolled rather than settled, which would blunt the impact on spot.
Realised volatility, meanwhile, has been falling. The gap between implied and realised is where dealers earn, and several noted that selling that gap has been the more profitable trade this quarter.
This article describes market positioning. It is journalism, not investment advice.
